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Monday, 14 August 2017 13:25

Warning: Do Not Tighten Policy Too Quickly

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Warning: Do Not Tighten Policy Too Quickly What if markets are over-confident on ECB to tighten, sell EUR/USD? Global inflation set for decelerating in second half of the year, which would induce more central banks to prefer a lower FX rate US CPI growth in July increased 0.1% m/m, making a 1.7% y/y growth, both figures are slightly lower than expected. Inflation has been decelerating for five consecutive months, raising questions whether Fed's annual target of 2% can be achieved. The dollar fell sharply after the disappointing data. Still, we don’t think the tepid inflation rate will change the path…
3 Reasons Why US Jobs Data Offers An Opportunity to Sell Dollar Gains in dollar after NFP could be temporary, buy EUR/USD? None of the factors pressuring dollar lower have changed after strong US jobs data Dollar boosted by better than expected US job data. It raises the big question now whether the dollar’s uptrend will restart or it’s actually an opportunity to sell the currency at rally. We think the latter one stands at a slightly higher possibility. Let’s look at the data first. The largest economy added 209,000 jobs last month, the labour department said on Friday, which…
Tuesday, 01 August 2017 13:55

Japanese Yen in Sweet Spot

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Japanese Yen in Sweet Spot Fed unwinding balance sheet plan may wane sentiment in risk assets, sell USD/JPY?   Fed may announce balance sheet unwinding plan in September while holding the policy rate unchanged Dollar dropped to a 14-month low last week as investors refined their reactions to a dovish tone from the Fed. FOMC signalled it is ready to start unwinding its crisis-era stimulus program as soon as its next meeting, but its outlook on US inflation weighs on dollar’s sentiment. Fed kept rates unchanged at 1% to 1.25% at the meeting as expected by financial markets. But in…
Monday, 24 July 2017 13:50

EUR/USD Uptrend Stays Intact on ECB’s Comment

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EUR/USD Uptrend Stays Intact on ECB’s Comment Increasing investors believe that ECB is going to discuss tightening in months, long EUR/USD?   Draghi is likely to discuss ECB’s reduce of bond purchasing plan in September Euro strength came as the markets brushed aside efforts by Mario Draghi, to avoid sounding hawkish, and instead concentrated on his apparently relaxed attitude towards the currency’s recent appreciation. Draghi said that the rise in the Euro’s trade-weighted index and the increase in bond yields have not counterbalanced the accommodative monetary policy of the ECB, and that’s good news for the euro bulls’ positions because…
Aussie, Kiwi Sold Off As China GDP Raises Tightening Fear Better than expected China GDP could accelerate pace of deleveraging, short AUD/USD? China reported a much better than expected growth number for second quarter, but many investors are confused why both Chinese stocks and Aussie sold off after such a solid data. We think it is due to the expectation of the second largest economy having more room to tighten its policy in second half of the year. This drives Aussie and Kiwi lower, and this trend may sustain in coming months. China growth in 2017, its first acceleration since…
Tuesday, 04 July 2017 11:01

Watch Out! ECB To Tighten Soon.

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Watch Out! ECB To Tighten Soon. ECB may start to consider QE exit in coming months, long EUR/USD? ECB could be ready to exit QE, EUR/USD surges EUR rallied across the board and it is likely to continue. ECB’ s Mario Draghi said last week, deflation is now off the table in euro zone and monetary policy is effective. “Reflationary forces” are working their way through the economy, paving the way for normalisation. “As the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become more accommodative, and ECB can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy…
Technical Analysis – EURUSD maintains neutral bias between 1.11 and 1.13; bullish market structure intact Selena Nicholas, XM Investment Research Desk   EURUSD maintains a neutral bias in the short-term, as the pair continues to trade between 1.1100 and 1.1300. In recent days, there has been some downward momentum following the failure to break above major resistance at 1.1300 after prices came very close to this level on June 14. There was a subsequent fall below 1.1200. This support-turned-resistance level is also close to the tenkan-sen line, making it an important resistance area. Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD…
Analysis on McDonalds by PaxForex   McDonalds - Bull model: Currency pair, can continue growing;  Outlook: The upward trend with a view to the profit more than 280 points.   Source: www.paxforex.com
Technology stock rebound buoys market sentiment 20.06.2017 by IFC Markets S&P 500 and Dow at fresh record highs US stocks closed at record highs on Monday as technology shares rebounded. The dollar recovered from previous day’s loss: the live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, gained 0.4% to 97.115. S&P 500 rose 0.8% settling at 2453.46, a new record high. The Dow Jones industrial average added 0.7% to 21528.99, a closing record. The Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.4% closing at 6239.01, with giants Apple,…
Technical Analysis GBPUSD : 2017-06-20 by IFC Markets Rising inflation supports British Pound UK inflation hit 2.9% in May, and Bank of England left rates unchanged. But three members voted for rate hike against one vote for a hike in May. Will the British Pound continue strengthening? The Bank of England left its key interest rate at 0.25%, leaving unchanged also the size of its asset purchase program at £435 billion at its meeting last Thursday. Monetary Policy Committee decision was widely anticipated but the 5-to-3 vote showed two more BOE members voted for a rate hike after just one…
Daily Morning Report 20.06.2017 by TradersTrust The pound was under pressure on Tuesday after Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney stated that it was not time for the British monetary authority to hike interest rates. The BoE surprised markets last week when three out of eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Consensus had only expected one dissent to the decision to hold. “Different members of the MPC will understandably have different views about the outlook and therefore on the potential timing of any bank rate increase,” Carney explained…
China stocks potential MSCI inclusion may support Aussie Fed made it clear that more tightening is coming, long USD/JPY? Any MSCI’s A-share inclusion may give Aussie a major boost China’s growing acceptance into international capital markets faces an important moment as MSCI is going to make a decision to include the first batch of stocks listed on its $7tn domestic equity markets into the world’s dominant emerging markets stock index. MSCI will announce whether it would include China’s domestic A-shares in its global indices after U.S. stocks closed this Wednesday, HK time. Inclusion into the index would be a major…
Tuesday, 13 June 2017 05:42

Weekly Market Research

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Weekly Market Research Roadmap for Pound after UK Election Surprises Markets Fed cannot wait to raise the interest rate in days, good time to sell EUR/USD? Result of UK election set for more volatility in GBP in short term, but medium-term outlook could be positive On Friday morning as UK election results ended in a hung parliament, there are many more questions to befuddle the market. Among them, who will now negotiate Brexit for the UK and how long the new government can last could be the most important. GBP is extending its overnight losses after confirmation that the UK…
Technical Analysis – AUDUSD hits fresh 2-week high; surpasses the 0.75 handle Posted on June 6, 2017 at 1:44 pm GMT Andreas Georgiou, XM Investment Research Desk     AUDUSD is currently up from the day’s open, rising above the 50-day moving average (MA) and setting a new two-week high of 0.7515. The short-term picture as depicted by the RSI is looking bullish as the indicator is above its 50 neutral-perceived level at 57. Note though that the indicator is not as steeply sloped as in the preceding trading days, perhaps indicating that momentum is not as strong as before. The…
Monday, 05 June 2017 11:47

5 Reasons Why Fed Will Ignore NFP and Hike Again

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5 Reasons Why Fed Will Ignore NFP and Hike Again Fed is ready to raise interest rate in two weeks, long USD/JPY? Below-estimated U.S. payrolls won’t change Fed’s rate decision this month Total U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, well below the earlier economists’ forecast, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3%, the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics reported last Friday. Job gains in March and April were revised down by 66,000 collectively. Job gains occurred in health care and mining last month. The figures do not change the picture of U.S. economy growing steadily…
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