The US Dollar is hovering above previous resistance at 96.84 against a basket of major currencies, helped by revived hopes of Federal Reserve rate hike by end of 2016. The greenback remains stronger mainly against commodity currencies. The Aussie has been under pressure since RBA minutes release earlier this week, the Canadian dollar is weighed by softer US Oil prices. The Euro has been flat in today’s trading, 20-30 pips above the psychological support at 1.20, after ECB decision to keep rates unchanged. The Japanese yenhas recovered against the US dollar as Kuroda said that there is “no need” and “no possibility” for helicopter money. Equity indiceshave been trading flat to negative on a moderate risk aversion environment as expectation for BoJ stimulus got softer.
The currency pair dived below 1.3200 on softer Retail Sales yesterday but managed to hold its ground and returned to resistance at 1.3260. As we move on towards Manufacturing and Services PMI risk is increasing. Technically we consider the resistance around 1.3275 as strong. The British pound was helped by Bank of England survey released yesterday, that business activity did not slipped as much as feared following the Brexit vote. We expect bearish momentum would revive should the resistance at 1.3270 – 1.3315 hold its ground.
The USDJPY dropped to support at 105.62 yesterday with an attempt today up to cap at 106.30. Due to the lack of news today, the currency pair will be mainly driven by risk appetite and we can identify some neutral to mild risk averse sentiment in market as central banks expectations fade for adding stimulus. In addition, we can see the risk averse sentiment in commodities prices being under pressure.