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Gold, Oil and EURUSD Weekly Analysis - Week 06

Will gold prices turn bearish?

GOLD 040219

Gold prices posted strong gains on the week as price action was seen perching close to the resistance level of 1320. A brief spike above 1320 pushed gold prices to test highs of 1326 before easing back lower. Friday's price action closed with a bearish candlestick pattern closing below Friday's open. This indicates a potential correction to the downside.

The main support is seen at the 1300 level which is expected to be tested in the near term. Establishing support at 1300, which also marks a round number support could potentially keep gold prices supported and enter into a range within 1320 and 1300.

In the event that the support at 1300 gives way, gold prices could be seen pushing lower to test the next support at 1280 which has held out so far. Only a strong close below 1280 will signal a major correction that could push gold prices down to the 1240 level at the very least.

To the upside, gold prices will need to bound off the 1300 level and break past the previously established resistance level of 1320. In this case, the next main upside is seen coming in at 1350.

Crude oil prices seen pushing higher

WTI 040219

WTI Crude oil prices advanced gains as price action was seen attempting to break past the resistance level at 54. The close above 54 handle is likely to see further gains coming in the near term. However, for further gains to be established, crude oil prices will need to establish support at the 54 handle.

Given the fact that the breakout above 54, oil prices come at a risk of a move to the downside. The lower support at 50 hasn't been tested just as yet which puts the upside gains at risk, unless oil prices form support near 54.

In the near term, it is best to remain on the sidelines and watch for price action to evolve at the current levels near 54. The price action in oil prices remain flat at the moment which could signal an exhaustion to the rally.

A bounce off the 50 handle is more likely to establish the support for the upside in price action.

Euro continues to consolidate

EURUSD 040219

The euro currency is seen maintaing a flat range, for the longest period in recent years. However, on the daily chart, the consolidation is seen shaping up into a triangle pattern. A breakout from this triangle pattern is likely to establish further gains or declines.

By Friday's close, the euro currency was seen closing near the resistance level of 1.1450. This could potentially signal a move to the downside if price action fails to hold the resistance. To the downside, the euro currency could be seen testing the 1.1282 level.

It is also important to note that price action in the EURUSD currency pair is seen forming into a head and shoulders pattern. With the baseline support formed at 1.1312 - 1.1282, a break down below this level could signal further declines. The minimum downside target in the euro is seen at 1.1100.

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