The meeting of representatives of the largest oil producing countries in Doha did not bring any results. The negotiations were broke off when representative of Saudi Arabia refused to sign any agreements without Iran’s participation.
As a result, On Monday the prices of oil and commodity currencies and the Yen went down. The price of crude oil Brent fell by almost 10%, to the level of 41 USD per barrel. The pair AUD/USD fell by 1.4% to 0.7635, the pair USD/CAD has grown by 1.3% to 1.2985.
The failure of negotiations forced investors to invest to the Japanese Yen, as it is a safe-haven currency. The pair USD/JPY fell to 18-month low at the level of 107.63, which was reached on 11 April. Stock indices also went down.
Some important news will be released this week. Special attention market participants will pay to the interest rate decisions by ECB (Thursday, 13:45 GMT+2) and press-conference by Mario Draghi, president of ECB, which will take place after the meeting of the Bank at 14:30.
Economic calendar is not eventful on Monday. Financial markets will take into account information received from Doha about the failure of the oil production negotiations. Since the opening of the American session pressure on oil prices and commodity currencies will increase. New York Fed president Mr. William Dudley will make a speech at 14:30 (GMT+2).
03:30 – Minutes of the meeting of ARB, which will reflect discussions on the interest rate two weeks ago.
10:00 – 11:00 – Payment balance for February, production in construction sector, ZEW index of business expectations in Eurozone for April.
15:30 – speech of the head of ARB Mr. Stevens.
17:00 – speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Poloz.
10:30 – Key UK data on wages, labor market and unemployment. This information is important for evaluation of the general state of the country’s economy. Negative data on labor market has negative impact on consumer expenses and economic growth. It is expected that unemployment will remain at the level of 5.1%. This data will also influence on the interest rates decisions by the Bank of England. Therefore, if the data is below the forecast, market volatility will grow in the pair with the Pound.
16:30 – weekly data of the US Ministry of Energy on oil and oil products inventories. Currently oil inventories have reached the record highs at the level of 500 million barrels.
10:30 – UK retail sales volume for March will be of great importance amid slowdown of most sectors of economy. It is expected that the index will rise by 4.2% on annual basis compared with the previous month (+3.8%).
13:45 – interest rate decision by the ECB.
Since 2008 ECB has been gradually reducing interest rate from 4.25% to the current level of 0%. The decline in the interest rate in December caused the rise in the pair EUR/USD by 5% within a very short period in respond to the measures within QE program in Eurozone, which were insufficient according to investors. Up to date measures undertaken by ECB have not brought improvement in macro-economic performance or inflation growth.
The decisions of the Banks and a speech by Mario Draghi (14:30 GMT+2) will be of great importance for the financial world.
16:00 – US leading indicators for March. These indices evaluate prospect and stability of economic development, including employment, average workweek, initial applications for unemployment benefits, construction permits, value of securities and return on assets.
10:00 – Business activity index and optimism indices in different economic sectors of Germany and Eurozone for April.
15:30 – Consumer price index of Canada for March. Along with the oil prices, this index has a strong impact on the CAD. However, unlike oil prices, this index has only a short-term affect on the CAD.
15:45 – Preliminary business activity index (PMI) in the US manufacturing and service sectors for April.