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Tuesday, 19 September 2017 11:19

The Pound is regaining positions. What’s next?

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The Pound is regaining positions. What’s next? The GBP/USD is back to the highs it reached in June 2016. It was achieved with the help of the macroeconomic statistics, which turned out to be better than before. However, in these circumstances the Pound could have rising slower, with an eye to the Brexit and the debates surrounding it. The major contribution to the quick growth was made by the Bank of England, which said it might increase the key rate in the months to come. During the September meeting, the Bank of England made a decision to keep the key…
Monday, 18 September 2017 15:06

How To Take Advantage Of Fed’s Unwinding

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How To Take Advantage Of Fed’s Unwinding   Fed’s balance sheet unwinding could drive equities lower, sell USD/JPY?   Shrinking the balance sheet is likely to reverse the portfolio rebalancing effects of QE, which may spur demand for safe haven assets Dollar stayed firm near the seven-week high versus yen on Monday. It is supported by recent rise in US Treasury yields. Data last week showed a pick up in US consumer prices. It raised the expectation of another Fed rate hike in December. But most importantly, investors are paying close attention to FOMC meeting this week. They are expected…
Monday, 04 September 2017 16:17

ECB May Jam The Brakes This Week

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ECB May Jam The Brakes This Week   Draghi may lower expectation on policy tightening, sell EUR/USD?   Dollar strengthened after weak NPF, as news reported ECB may delay QE tapering plan   US dollar surprisingly edged higher against a basket of currencies, especially euro, after disappointing US jobs data last Friday. Such reaction is contributed by news released minutes after NFP that ECB may not have the final QE exit plan until December. A weaker euro pushed dollar higher.   Let’s have a look at US jobs report first. US labour department data showed nonfarm payroll increased by 156,000…
Wednesday, 30 August 2017 08:54

Weekly Market Research

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Euro Rallies To 31-Month High   Draghi may announce QE tapering within the next two months, buy EUR/USD?   Draghi said global recovery is firming up, suggesting he is comfortable with less accommodative policy   The euro rallied to its highest level in more than two years against the dollar after Jackson Hole meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi did not express concern about the strong euro zone currency as some investors had expected earlier. It is very likely Draghi has increased his tolerance on a stronger euro. Euro climbed 13% against the dollar this year to date, as it benefited…
Monday, 14 August 2017 13:25

Warning: Do Not Tighten Policy Too Quickly

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Warning: Do Not Tighten Policy Too Quickly What if markets are over-confident on ECB to tighten, sell EUR/USD? Global inflation set for decelerating in second half of the year, which would induce more central banks to prefer a lower FX rate US CPI growth in July increased 0.1% m/m, making a 1.7% y/y growth, both figures are slightly lower than expected. Inflation has been decelerating for five consecutive months, raising questions whether Fed's annual target of 2% can be achieved. The dollar fell sharply after the disappointing data. Still, we don’t think the tepid inflation rate will change the path…
3 Reasons Why US Jobs Data Offers An Opportunity to Sell Dollar Gains in dollar after NFP could be temporary, buy EUR/USD? None of the factors pressuring dollar lower have changed after strong US jobs data Dollar boosted by better than expected US job data. It raises the big question now whether the dollar’s uptrend will restart or it’s actually an opportunity to sell the currency at rally. We think the latter one stands at a slightly higher possibility. Let’s look at the data first. The largest economy added 209,000 jobs last month, the labour department said on Friday, which…
Tuesday, 01 August 2017 13:55

Japanese Yen in Sweet Spot

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Japanese Yen in Sweet Spot Fed unwinding balance sheet plan may wane sentiment in risk assets, sell USD/JPY?   Fed may announce balance sheet unwinding plan in September while holding the policy rate unchanged Dollar dropped to a 14-month low last week as investors refined their reactions to a dovish tone from the Fed. FOMC signalled it is ready to start unwinding its crisis-era stimulus program as soon as its next meeting, but its outlook on US inflation weighs on dollar’s sentiment. Fed kept rates unchanged at 1% to 1.25% at the meeting as expected by financial markets. But in…
Monday, 24 July 2017 13:50

EUR/USD Uptrend Stays Intact on ECB’s Comment

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EUR/USD Uptrend Stays Intact on ECB’s Comment Increasing investors believe that ECB is going to discuss tightening in months, long EUR/USD?   Draghi is likely to discuss ECB’s reduce of bond purchasing plan in September Euro strength came as the markets brushed aside efforts by Mario Draghi, to avoid sounding hawkish, and instead concentrated on his apparently relaxed attitude towards the currency’s recent appreciation. Draghi said that the rise in the Euro’s trade-weighted index and the increase in bond yields have not counterbalanced the accommodative monetary policy of the ECB, and that’s good news for the euro bulls’ positions because…
Aussie, Kiwi Sold Off As China GDP Raises Tightening Fear Better than expected China GDP could accelerate pace of deleveraging, short AUD/USD? China reported a much better than expected growth number for second quarter, but many investors are confused why both Chinese stocks and Aussie sold off after such a solid data. We think it is due to the expectation of the second largest economy having more room to tighten its policy in second half of the year. This drives Aussie and Kiwi lower, and this trend may sustain in coming months. China growth in 2017, its first acceleration since…
Tuesday, 04 July 2017 11:01

Watch Out! ECB To Tighten Soon.

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Watch Out! ECB To Tighten Soon. ECB may start to consider QE exit in coming months, long EUR/USD? ECB could be ready to exit QE, EUR/USD surges EUR rallied across the board and it is likely to continue. ECB’ s Mario Draghi said last week, deflation is now off the table in euro zone and monetary policy is effective. “Reflationary forces” are working their way through the economy, paving the way for normalisation. “As the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become more accommodative, and ECB can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy…
Technical Analysis – EURUSD maintains neutral bias between 1.11 and 1.13; bullish market structure intact Selena Nicholas, XM Investment Research Desk   EURUSD maintains a neutral bias in the short-term, as the pair continues to trade between 1.1100 and 1.1300. In recent days, there has been some downward momentum following the failure to break above major resistance at 1.1300 after prices came very close to this level on June 14. There was a subsequent fall below 1.1200. This support-turned-resistance level is also close to the tenkan-sen line, making it an important resistance area. Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD…
Analysis on McDonalds by PaxForex   McDonalds - Bull model: Currency pair, can continue growing;  Outlook: The upward trend with a view to the profit more than 280 points.   Source: www.paxforex.com
Technology stock rebound buoys market sentiment 20.06.2017 by IFC Markets S&P 500 and Dow at fresh record highs US stocks closed at record highs on Monday as technology shares rebounded. The dollar recovered from previous day’s loss: the live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, gained 0.4% to 97.115. S&P 500 rose 0.8% settling at 2453.46, a new record high. The Dow Jones industrial average added 0.7% to 21528.99, a closing record. The Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.4% closing at 6239.01, with giants Apple,…
Technical Analysis GBPUSD : 2017-06-20 by IFC Markets Rising inflation supports British Pound UK inflation hit 2.9% in May, and Bank of England left rates unchanged. But three members voted for rate hike against one vote for a hike in May. Will the British Pound continue strengthening? The Bank of England left its key interest rate at 0.25%, leaving unchanged also the size of its asset purchase program at £435 billion at its meeting last Thursday. Monetary Policy Committee decision was widely anticipated but the 5-to-3 vote showed two more BOE members voted for a rate hike after just one…
Daily Morning Report 20.06.2017 by TradersTrust The pound was under pressure on Tuesday after Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney stated that it was not time for the British monetary authority to hike interest rates. The BoE surprised markets last week when three out of eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Consensus had only expected one dissent to the decision to hold. “Different members of the MPC will understandably have different views about the outlook and therefore on the potential timing of any bank rate increase,” Carney explained…
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